Economists lose faith in ‘Jokowinomics’
Satria Sambijantoro, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Thu, April 09 2015, 8:03 AM
Having pinned high hopes on the new government, international analysts have now become skeptical over the economic reforms previously announced by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo as realization of his promises has been sluggish.
In a report entitled “Trimming Expectations” released on Wednesday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut economic growth projection for Indonesian to 5.5 percent this year, from its earlier estimate of 5.7 percent.
The US-based bank also cut its 2016 growth projection to 5.7 percent from 6 percent earlier, citing “slow” progress on the realization of infrastructure investment.
“Infrastructure investment has been subdued over the past decade and should recover under President Jokowi’s watch,” said Chua Hak Bin, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“But progress is slow so far, in part because of complex land acquisition process, weak implementation capacity and poor inter-agency coordination,” he noted.
Jokowi based his growth-minded economic agenda on the ambitious infrastructure spending plan, as he allocated approximately Rp 290 trillion (US$22.38 billion) in capital expenditure (capex) in the 2015 state budget, up from Rp 190 trillion last year.
However, recent developments show that budget disbursement remains sluggish, just as in past years. This occurred despite the reforms floated by Jokowi, including his instruction to kick-start state-contract tendering in March instead of June as is the norm.
In the first quarter of this year, the government disbursed only 18.5 percent of total state spending of Rp 1.98 quadrillion. Meanwhile, the Public Works and Housing Ministry, which is responsible for infrastructure projects, had spent only 3 percent of its budget by the end of March.
The situation sees the government facing a serious risk of underspending in the capex budget allocation, Chua added.
“Our concern is that a potential cut in expenditure of Rp 100 trillion may come, mostly in the form of a cut or delay in capital expenditure,” commented Reza Siregar, an economist with Goldman Sachs, another US-based investment bank.
Reza also noted that there were “questions on the viability of the key targets of the newly revised 2015 budget”, cautioning against a possible swelling in the fiscal deficit as a result of the unrealistic revenue collection target.
This year, Jokowi has targeted tax collection of Rp 1.48 quadrillion, a 30 percent increase from a year earlier.
This is an overly optimistic target, according to Goldman Sachs, which predicted that the maximum growth in tax revenues this year might stand at only 15 percent.
Caution over Jokowi’s economic reform progress was also shared by ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P), which has refused to upgrade its credit rating for Indonesia.
This week, S&P’s executives met local analysts and media representatives in Jakarta and announced the ratings agency’s decision to maintain Indonesia’s rating at BB+, or one notch below the prestigious investment-grade status.
A country with an investment-grade rating normally sees stronger foreign inflows, compared to one rated in speculative or junk grades.
“The S&P sees a considerable risk. It sees the emerging of ‘less friendly’ business policies that could potentially negate the fuel subsidy reform,” Mandiri Sekuritas analyst Aldian Taloputra and Leo Rinaldy, who attended the meeting with S&P, wrote in a note distributed to clients on Wednesday.
“It wants to assess whether the government is consistent on its reform path if the external or internal pressures, including political pressure, intensify,” they noted. –
www.thejakartapost.com
Diminta Revisi, Jokowi Malah Sebut Target Pajak Kurang Tinggi
Gentur Putro Jati, CNN Indonesia
Rabu, 29/04/2015 14:32 WIB
Jakarta, CNN Indonesia -- Usulan Mantan Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal (BKF) Kementerian Keuangan Anggito Abimanyu agar pemerintah merevisi turun target penerimaan pajak dari Rp 1.294,2 dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (APBNP) 2015 tidak dihiraukan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi).
Mantan Gubernur Provinsi DKI Jakarta tersebut justru menilai dengan rasio perpajakan yang ada, maka target tersebut masih terbilang kecil. Jokowi mencatat dari 252 juta penduduk Indonesia, idealnya ada 44 juta penduduk yang memiliki nomor pokok wajib pajak (NPWP).
Namun kenyataannya baru 26 juta yang menyerahkan Surat Pemberitahuan (SPT) pajak penghasilan (PPh) tahunan kepada pemerintah. Dari angka itu, ternyata baru 10 juta yang membayar pajak dan 900 ribu diantaranya adalah Wajib Pajak (WP) pribadi.
“Ini kan sangat kecil sekali, rasio pajak kita juga hanya 11 persen. Ini kecil sekali kalau dibandingkan dengan negara-negara tetangga yang sudah 18-21 persen,” ujar Jokowi di Istana Negara dikutip dari laman Sekretariat Kabinet, Rabu (29/4).
Oleh karena itu, usulan agar pemerintah menurunkan target pajak agar di akhir tahun terhindari dari terjadinya shortfall atau kekurangan target sebesar Rp 220 triliun tidak dipenuhinya.
Direktorat Jenderal Pajak (DJP) Kementerian Keuangan menurutnya masih bisa mengejar target tersebut asalkan bisa menggunakan cara yang tepat untuk memancing wajib pajak melaksanakan kewajibannya.
“Petugas pajak harus bisa melakukan dengan cara yang hati-hati, jangan sampai justru ada ketakutan dan menimbulkan dampak yang tidak baik. Jangan sampai dunia usaha takut membelanjakan uang, takut mengeluarkan uang, takut menginvestasikan uang karena merasa dikejar-kejar,” tegas Jokowi.
Sementara Menteri Keuangan Bambang P.S. Brodjonegoro menilai masih rendahnya tingkat kepatuhan wajib pajak adalah karena kurang pahamnya masyarakat atas ketentuan perpajakan. Karena itu, dengan moto “Reach the unreachable, touch the untouchable”, kata Menkeu, Ditjen Pajak akan melakukan pembinaan kepada kelompok wajib pajak terdaftar yang telah maupun belum melaporkan SPT, serta orang atau badan yang belum terdaftar sebagai wajib pajak.
Selain itu Kementerian Keuangan juga menerbitkan Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) tentang pengurangan atau penghapusan sanksi administrasi sebagai akibat keterlambatan penyampaian SPT atau penyetoran pajak.
Menkeu menyebutkan, PMK tentang sunset policy itu sesuai dengan strategi DJP untuk menjadikan tahun 2015 sebagai Tahun Pembinaan Wajib Pajak.
“Strategi ini merupakan bagian dari rencana pengamanan target penerimaan pajak 2015. Diharapkan seluruh masyarakat mampu menyukseskan tahun pembinaan wajib pajak 2015, dan seluruh jajaran pemerintah pusat dan daerah, pelaku bisnis, dan stakeholdermendukung kebijakan tersebut,” kata Bambang. (gen)
www.cnnindonesia.com
Satria Sambijantoro, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Thu, April 09 2015, 8:03 AM
Having pinned high hopes on the new government, international analysts have now become skeptical over the economic reforms previously announced by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo as realization of his promises has been sluggish.
In a report entitled “Trimming Expectations” released on Wednesday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut economic growth projection for Indonesian to 5.5 percent this year, from its earlier estimate of 5.7 percent.
The US-based bank also cut its 2016 growth projection to 5.7 percent from 6 percent earlier, citing “slow” progress on the realization of infrastructure investment.
“Infrastructure investment has been subdued over the past decade and should recover under President Jokowi’s watch,” said Chua Hak Bin, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“But progress is slow so far, in part because of complex land acquisition process, weak implementation capacity and poor inter-agency coordination,” he noted.
Jokowi based his growth-minded economic agenda on the ambitious infrastructure spending plan, as he allocated approximately Rp 290 trillion (US$22.38 billion) in capital expenditure (capex) in the 2015 state budget, up from Rp 190 trillion last year.
However, recent developments show that budget disbursement remains sluggish, just as in past years. This occurred despite the reforms floated by Jokowi, including his instruction to kick-start state-contract tendering in March instead of June as is the norm.
In the first quarter of this year, the government disbursed only 18.5 percent of total state spending of Rp 1.98 quadrillion. Meanwhile, the Public Works and Housing Ministry, which is responsible for infrastructure projects, had spent only 3 percent of its budget by the end of March.
The situation sees the government facing a serious risk of underspending in the capex budget allocation, Chua added.
“Our concern is that a potential cut in expenditure of Rp 100 trillion may come, mostly in the form of a cut or delay in capital expenditure,” commented Reza Siregar, an economist with Goldman Sachs, another US-based investment bank.
Reza also noted that there were “questions on the viability of the key targets of the newly revised 2015 budget”, cautioning against a possible swelling in the fiscal deficit as a result of the unrealistic revenue collection target.
This year, Jokowi has targeted tax collection of Rp 1.48 quadrillion, a 30 percent increase from a year earlier.
This is an overly optimistic target, according to Goldman Sachs, which predicted that the maximum growth in tax revenues this year might stand at only 15 percent.
Caution over Jokowi’s economic reform progress was also shared by ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P), which has refused to upgrade its credit rating for Indonesia.
This week, S&P’s executives met local analysts and media representatives in Jakarta and announced the ratings agency’s decision to maintain Indonesia’s rating at BB+, or one notch below the prestigious investment-grade status.
A country with an investment-grade rating normally sees stronger foreign inflows, compared to one rated in speculative or junk grades.
“The S&P sees a considerable risk. It sees the emerging of ‘less friendly’ business policies that could potentially negate the fuel subsidy reform,” Mandiri Sekuritas analyst Aldian Taloputra and Leo Rinaldy, who attended the meeting with S&P, wrote in a note distributed to clients on Wednesday.
“It wants to assess whether the government is consistent on its reform path if the external or internal pressures, including political pressure, intensify,” they noted. –
www.thejakartapost.com
Diminta Revisi, Jokowi Malah Sebut Target Pajak Kurang Tinggi
Gentur Putro Jati, CNN Indonesia
Rabu, 29/04/2015 14:32 WIB
Jakarta, CNN Indonesia -- Usulan Mantan Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal (BKF) Kementerian Keuangan Anggito Abimanyu agar pemerintah merevisi turun target penerimaan pajak dari Rp 1.294,2 dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (APBNP) 2015 tidak dihiraukan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi).
Mantan Gubernur Provinsi DKI Jakarta tersebut justru menilai dengan rasio perpajakan yang ada, maka target tersebut masih terbilang kecil. Jokowi mencatat dari 252 juta penduduk Indonesia, idealnya ada 44 juta penduduk yang memiliki nomor pokok wajib pajak (NPWP).
Namun kenyataannya baru 26 juta yang menyerahkan Surat Pemberitahuan (SPT) pajak penghasilan (PPh) tahunan kepada pemerintah. Dari angka itu, ternyata baru 10 juta yang membayar pajak dan 900 ribu diantaranya adalah Wajib Pajak (WP) pribadi.
“Ini kan sangat kecil sekali, rasio pajak kita juga hanya 11 persen. Ini kecil sekali kalau dibandingkan dengan negara-negara tetangga yang sudah 18-21 persen,” ujar Jokowi di Istana Negara dikutip dari laman Sekretariat Kabinet, Rabu (29/4).
Oleh karena itu, usulan agar pemerintah menurunkan target pajak agar di akhir tahun terhindari dari terjadinya shortfall atau kekurangan target sebesar Rp 220 triliun tidak dipenuhinya.
Direktorat Jenderal Pajak (DJP) Kementerian Keuangan menurutnya masih bisa mengejar target tersebut asalkan bisa menggunakan cara yang tepat untuk memancing wajib pajak melaksanakan kewajibannya.
“Petugas pajak harus bisa melakukan dengan cara yang hati-hati, jangan sampai justru ada ketakutan dan menimbulkan dampak yang tidak baik. Jangan sampai dunia usaha takut membelanjakan uang, takut mengeluarkan uang, takut menginvestasikan uang karena merasa dikejar-kejar,” tegas Jokowi.
Sementara Menteri Keuangan Bambang P.S. Brodjonegoro menilai masih rendahnya tingkat kepatuhan wajib pajak adalah karena kurang pahamnya masyarakat atas ketentuan perpajakan. Karena itu, dengan moto “Reach the unreachable, touch the untouchable”, kata Menkeu, Ditjen Pajak akan melakukan pembinaan kepada kelompok wajib pajak terdaftar yang telah maupun belum melaporkan SPT, serta orang atau badan yang belum terdaftar sebagai wajib pajak.
Selain itu Kementerian Keuangan juga menerbitkan Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) tentang pengurangan atau penghapusan sanksi administrasi sebagai akibat keterlambatan penyampaian SPT atau penyetoran pajak.
Menkeu menyebutkan, PMK tentang sunset policy itu sesuai dengan strategi DJP untuk menjadikan tahun 2015 sebagai Tahun Pembinaan Wajib Pajak.
“Strategi ini merupakan bagian dari rencana pengamanan target penerimaan pajak 2015. Diharapkan seluruh masyarakat mampu menyukseskan tahun pembinaan wajib pajak 2015, dan seluruh jajaran pemerintah pusat dan daerah, pelaku bisnis, dan stakeholdermendukung kebijakan tersebut,” kata Bambang. (gen)
www.cnnindonesia.com
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